Three Horizons Growth Planner

Growth Strategy Tool

Balance short-term performance with long-term growth using McKinsey's Three Horizons

Growth Strategy Advanced 50-60 minutes
growthstrategyplanningmckinsey

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About the Three Horizons Growth Planner

The Three Horizons Growth Planner helps you balance running today's business, building tomorrow's, and seeding the long-term - McKinsey's Three Horizons model. Most companies over-invest in Horizon 1 and starve the future. Use it to allocate attention and resources across all three so you grow now without mortgaging later.

Framework & Instructions

Step 1: Map Current Initiatives

Categorize all current initiatives:

Horizon 1 (Core Business):

  • [Initiative 1] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 2] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 3] - Expected impact: [metric]

    Horizon 2 (Emerging Opportunities):

  • [Initiative 1] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 2] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 3] - Expected impact: [metric]

    Horizon 3 (Future Options):

  • [Initiative 1] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 2] - Expected impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative 3] - Expected impact: [metric]

    Step 2: Assess Current Resource Allocation

    Current Split:

  • Horizon 1: [percentage]%
  • Horizon 2: [percentage]%
  • Horizon 3: [percentage]%

    Ideal Split:

  • Horizon 1: 70-80%
  • Horizon 2: 15-20%
  • Horizon 3: 5-10%

    Gap Analysis:

  • [Where are you over-investing?]
  • [Where are you under-investing?]
  • [What are the risks?]

    Step 3: Identify Gaps

    Horizon 1 Gaps:

  • [What core business areas need attention?]
  • [Where are you leaving money on the table?]
  • [What's underperforming?]

    Horizon 2 Gaps:

  • [What growth engines are missing?]
  • [What adjacencies could you explore?]
  • [What opportunities are you ignoring?]

    Horizon 3 Gaps:

  • [What transformative bets should you make?]
  • [What disruptive threats should you prepare for?]
  • [What future options should you explore?]

    Step 4: Create Balanced Portfolio

    Horizon 1 Initiatives (Select 5-8):

  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]

    Horizon 2 Initiatives (Select 2-4):

  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]
  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]

    Horizon 3 Initiatives (Select 1-2):

  • [Initiative] - Timeline: [duration], Impact: [metric]

    Step 5: Define Success Metrics

    Horizon 1 Metrics:

  • Revenue growth: [target]
  • Margin improvement: [target]
  • Market share: [target]
  • Efficiency gains: [target]

    Horizon 2 Metrics:

  • New revenue from emerging: [target]
  • Growth rate of new businesses: [target]
  • Customer acquisition in new markets: [target]

    Horizon 3 Metrics:

  • Number of experiments running: [target]
  • Learning velocity: [target]
  • Options created: [target]

    ---

    Common Portfolio Imbalances

    Imbalance 1: Over-Focus on Horizon 1

Symptom: 100% resources on current business

Risk: No future growth, vulnerable to disruption

Fix: Allocate 15-20% to Horizon 2, 5-10% to Horizon 3

Imbalance 2: Neglecting Horizon 1

Symptom: Too much focus on moonshots

Risk: Current business deteriorates, lack of funds for future

Fix: Prioritize Horizon 1 (70-80% resources), use profits to fund future

Imbalance 3: No Horizon 3 Bets

Symptom: All resources on predictable initiatives

Risk: Miss transformational opportunities, get disrupted

Fix: Make small, strategic bets on Horizon 3

Imbalance 4: Horizon 2 Not Scaling

Symptom: Emerging initiatives stay small forever

Risk: No new growth engines materialize

Fix: Provide sufficient resources and organizational support to scale Horizon 2

---

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the three horizons?

Horizon 1 is your core business today, Horizon 2 is emerging opportunities scaling toward material revenue, and Horizon 3 is long-term bets and experiments. Healthy companies invest across all three, not just the first.

Why do companies neglect Horizons 2 and 3?

Because the core business is urgent and measurable while the future is not. The model forces deliberate allocation to emerging and long-term bets before the core plateaus and it is too late.

How do I allocate across horizons?

The tool helps you weigh resources and attention by your stage and risk appetite - protecting the core while ensuring the next growth engine is being built before you need it.

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